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FACTS, FIGURES BASIS FOR CEBU PROV’S GCQ TRANSITION
By: Eleanor Valeros | Published Tuesday, May 19, 2020

If the countries such as Italy and the United States of America are considered to have the worst Covid-19 numbers for recording hundreds of deaths per a million population, the worst in the entire Cebu Island is only 14 deaths in one million recorded in Cebu City. 

With this, Governor Gwendolyn Garcia emphasized that empirical data (facts and figures) should be the bases in arriving at an informed decision, especially to critical matters like Covid-19.

“Our decision should not be based on what we see on television and on Facebook. Tun-an nato ang epekto sa Covid-19 dinhi sa Sugbo sa atong desisyon, ug sa ubang nasud, sa Asia, sa Europe, makamatay ba ni’g daghan kon matakbuyan ang kadaghanan,” she said during her daily virtual presser on Monday, May 18.

“Gi-base gyud ni nato sa statistics to arrive at a conclusion kon unsa ka-fatal kining maong disease,” she added.

From March 19 to May 18, there is a total of 70 confirmed cases in Cebu Province with 10 deaths.

In Garcia’s presentation, the ratio of deaths vis-à-vis the population of the province at 3,226,290 people, 10 deaths mean that the mortality ratio is three per one million. 

Mandaue City, one of the component cities of the Province, is excluded in this count as its statistics have been recorded separately by the Department of Health. With the city’s population at 398,106, the three recorded deaths mean mortality ratio of eight for every one million.

Cebu City, with a population of 1,012,803 and 14 deaths, the mortality ratio is 14 for every million. Lapu-Lapu City with 448,008 people has one death, which means two for every one million, the lowest in Cebu Island.

Further, Garcia presented the statistics outside of the country citing Wuhan City, China with the mortality ratio of 290 per million; 518 per million mortality ratio in Italy; and 263 per million in USA.

“Compare this to Cebu, ang atong mortality ratio is not even 10 percent, maybe even five percent lower than that. Kon ikumparar ang highest nato, Cebu City, ikumparar sa kadtong naa sa gawas, at 14, it is not even 10 percent of the lowest mortality ratio (in the world) which is the 263 per one million in US,” she emphasized.

In Asia, Singapore and Indonesia have a mortality rate of four per one million based on their population, positive cases, and recorded deaths. Meanwhile, the Philippines, at 109 million population and 790 deaths, the rate is at seven per a million.

“So if you can see, if we talk about the number of deaths, dili gyud siguro sama kahadlok nato sa ubang mga sakit, sama pananglit sa dengue, sa ubang mas taas nga nangaangin tungod kay sila natakbuyan niadtong uban nga sakit,” Garcia said.

Cardiovascular diseases top the causes of mortality in the Province as of 2018 with 1,075 deaths for every one million. This is followed by pneumonia with 465 cases, all types of cancer with 335 cases, cerebrovascular diseases at 246, and diabetes mellitus at 117 per million.

“Figures cannot lie. Clearly, layo ra kaayo ang tulo ka deaths per one million as compared to cardiovascular diseases. Now why am I saying this? Maybe it’s about time tagaan nato og consideration ang ubang aspeto,” Garcia said. 

Although some may opt to compare the number of deaths to the number of cases, the governor explained that the more positive cases come out as a result of the mass testing, the more positive cases get recorded, the smaller the mortality ratio also becomes.

“Tingali ang uban moingon i-compare gyud na nimo ang number of deaths sa number of cases. Pero magtikadaghan imong positive, magtikagamay ang ratio. Kay 10 deaths nya 100 tested so 10 percent kon 100 ang positive. Pero kon nagsige kag test, kay nag-massive testing ka, 10 deaths nya 1,000 na imong positive, ang 10 deaths mahulog na lang na og one percent,” she expounded.

However, if this becomes the basis, Garcia said the mortality rate for Cebu Province would then be at 14.2 percent, and 0.79 percent in Cebu City.

“Kon mao ni atong basehan, then kuyaw diay sa Negros Oriental kay sa upat nila ka positive, two deaths man, so 50 percent diay ang mortality rate. Kuyaw diay kaayong Covid kay mamatay ang katunga and yet Cebu City nga 1,753 cases makita nimo nga 80 percent asymptomatic. Gipangkwarentina ang uban. Wala’y mga symptoms. Walay mga sakit. Positive lang ka.,” the she further elucidated.

“Now, lisud kaayo og imo nang ikumparar ang deaths per number of positive cases, the more tests you do the more positives you’ll find. I think that skews our judgment and our perspective. We might be led to believe nga magsige og focus hala positive, positive, nya nagdagan-dagan sa dalan. Way hilanat, way ubo,” Garcia argued.

The governor stressed that Covid-19 is not what everyone think it really is. 

“Fear was caused mainly by the fact that it is a new strain, but angay ba nga ipadayon nato ni nga libo ka libuan ang nawad-ag panginabuhi? Panahon na para mo-transition na ta from Enhanced Community Quarantine to General Community Quarantine,” she said.

Executive Order 17 on Cebu Province’s GCQ Protocols will take effect on Wednesday, May 20, at 12:01 am. (Eleanor Valeros)